OK Colleen, here's the Melbourne NWS from this afternoon:

BEYOND 00Z SUN...LCL FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE PATH/STRENGTH OF
"ISIDORE"...WHICH IS FCST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE N/NW THROUGH
18Z SUN AS IT STRENGTHENS TO NEAR CAT 3 STRENGTH. WHILE MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION/PRESSURE PATTERN AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SE GOMEX...THEIR TRACK FORECASTS DIVERGE
BEYOND 12Z SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT NIGHT IS LOW. WILL
DEFAULT TO CLIMO POPS FOR NOW... AND AOA CLIMO TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COMING DAYS.

So I did not say we're in the Clear!

BTW, the Melbourne NWS are some of the best in the country and they don't have a clue!! Cheers!! Steve H. PS: IM me at 7 pm. thanks.