a'ite jason, whenever youre off the air: read that page you posted.. id actually seen that before but just glanced over it and forgotten. aside from observing firsthand what those nhc suite models tend to do, any more free info you can come up with would be cool.
i've got a new short term take, which sort of flies in the face of my overall forecast but could still work in: think the center of isidore will cross only the very western tip of cuba, move just south of isle of youth. also think the intensity forecast is 15kt too low at 48-72hr. i didnt like the nogaps forecast yesterday, but since it's quit ramming the storm into the BOC and just stalls it and turns it back north... now it follows what i had in mind, personally think it will be closer to the yucatan and meandering erratically sunday.
two things i think will play into the ultimate path of izzy:
1)whether the disturbance south of mexico starts to develop. it could further confuse the upper pattern in the gulf.
2)upper cutoff forming near bermuda and backtracking.. think this will have a surface reflection that tries to develop and heads for the mid altantic next week.. that ultimately presses against the continental longwave and causes the shortwaves to buckle and amplify upstream.. one of which should finally bring isidore out.
in the meanwhile, izzy will be wandering in the gulf.. maybe quasi stationary late weekend/early next week. thought is that upwelling will not be a big deal since the oceanic heat content runs fairly deep in the gulf.
it would not surprise me if isidore borders on category five before or after some eyewall replacement cycle in a couple of days.
HF 2145z19september