For what its worth my thoughts on Izzy tonight is that once it crosses Cuba, it will continue on basically whatever track mode its has been in up to that point, provided the system is moving at least 10 mph.... rationale is that this is a big storm with plenty of inertia, and nothing in the area to really stop it from progressing in its general direction... no big blocking high any where to be seen in the immediate future... if the trough stalls, and opens up a path for the system, the strong southerly flow will influence the system northward... this is basically what happened with Camille... with one exception... Camille was supposed to hit the Florida panhandle and not the MS coast... we were told all day that the system was going to go off to the NNE or NE... never did, and the rest is history...

If this comes to fruition, and another added factor to my rationale, there is a really good southerly flow out of the GOM tonight into the northern Gulf Coast and this should prevail for the next several days... this is going to influence the system to continue on a basically northward trajectory.... also the ULL off to the west might also influence the northerly track. Now where it will ultimately end up I really can't say, but I would not rule out anything from New Orleans to Panama City.... best guest AL/Fl line... another factor in my forecast is its logical from a climatological perspective..

Once thing I vividly remember about Camille is the really strong southerly wind flow we had consistenly for three days prior to impacting the MS coast...

I don't buy the GFDL at all even though it been rather consistant of late, I just don't think its going to loop... looking at the recent IR loop the system continues to track along on a steady path from wnw to nw...

There have been some outstanding post over the past 24 hours, it has taken me about an hour to read them all, congratulations to everyonel for the outstanding job...

and there is nothing wrong with wishcasting, just remember sometimes you get what you wish for... as for me... I just hope it goes off to the east of MS... our shore line is just too shallow to deal with tides 12-15 feet, which could be expected with a strong CAT 3... my house is 20 feet above sea level and I'm right on the beach in Biloxi...

I said for the past day or so it would be in the western panhandle, and I'm still sticking with it... if I'm wrong I can eat crow with the best of em...