Growth and evolution continues, no surprises overnight...Izzy shoud be a major hurricane in the Gulf later on.

As far as the model runs, we are gonna have to give at least some weight to the meander solution...although you have to remember that the BAM's and the a98 models agree so well with the AVN because they are BASED on the AVN...naturally they shouldn't be too much of an outlyer...

I went digging this morning....this is an ensemble forecast, which is a composite forecast of several models blended together....it's interesting...check it out...

Ensemble..

Here is another, for the AVN/MRF ensenble, which is basically running the same model several different times with SLIGHTLY different inital data to account for posssible errors...look at the MSLP plots over the mid and long range...

MRF Ensemble

Then the NOGAPS ensemble....

Nogaps ensemble...

Similar data from the Canadian...

CMC ensembles...

Now, if you are thoroughly lost, here is the skinny of it...the blended output of several various model whcih disagree in the shorter term, ALL bring Izzy to the NW Florida Gulf Coast eventually...with STAGGERING agreement on location, if not time.

Food for thought...