Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 20 2002 11:15 AM
Intensity changing forecast?

It seems that every model I have looked at has IZZY at pressures well above what he actually is. GFDL seems to be the closest on intesity; but even it, surprisingly enough, is low compared to what Isidore has actually done. Combine that with what appears to be a pretty well defined front coming into the GOM, I think Izzy's track is going to start getting more muddled again after 18-24 hours and not 36-72 hours. Thinking that Isidore does not quite as far west and may not do a southern loop but a turn from WNW-NW-N-NE sometime in the period. Same result but probably a day or two less in the Gulf. I guess it is still possible that the storm tries to dive south into the Yucatan to miss the front. Just not quite sold that a storm of that intensity will take a southern dive. Granted Mitch is a prime example of that. It seems NE may end up being the path of least resistance.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center