that upper low developing east of florida is about as robust as the avn forecasted it to be so far, as the nhc discussion says.. but there is enough of the old upper low to the west of izzy to hold it between the two for now. for now. now the question is, which lets go first. avn upper low maxes out by 48hr and is deteriorating into a trough.. note that avn also develops a system (probably fake) over the bahamas and sends it north next week. in the meanwhile it has also had the upper system over the BOC let go of izzy as well.. izzy is actually sort of moving wsw in tandem with it. that i dont buy. basically i think the small upper low to the west keeps enough push on isidore so that the storm slowly trudges wnw.. maybe stopping to bob around and loop, maybe even doing the cyclonic loop nogaps and gfdl have envisioned at times. by then the upper low to the east has decayed and isidore is basically just going to wait until a shortwave grabs hold. there are two that i think can do it.. the one that is going by obviously didnt get the storm.. but another is down tapping isidore by sunday.. this would bring the storm up for a tue/wed strike. i think that isidore will at least respond weakly to this shortwave. next one comes down thursday or so.. more energetic. even on the avn runs, with isidore down in the boc, the storm responds to this shortwave. i dont see this one not turning isidore up for a fri-sun next week strike, if the sun/mon one doesnt. so basically.. thats what ive got. goofy erratic motion prior to recurvature.. but still leaning on recurvature and not the mexican solution.
going to leave my strike zone on the panhandle, but extend it a little west as far as biloxi. think that florida below cedar key really is in the clear. fairly certain.
interesting that if isidore hadnt first tried running south america we would be dealing with a landfaller in florida around now. what a difference that made.
i'll take a moment to address the other atlantic features:
bastardi's little coast runner isnt what the avn wants to make down near cuba.. more likely is going to evolve west of the bahamas this weekend and be near hatteras monday. it will be a weak or formative system, nothing too impressive.
probably going to have kyle wandering east of bermuda before the weekend is out, as well. 91L looks fairly healthy.
i was probably too harsh on the wave near 40-45w. there is ridging building ahead, still fairly weak.. and it is fairly close to the itcz. this could be an invest in a couple of days... maybe something for cycloneye to ooh and ahh about. this might have its ridging build westward with it to a point.
wonder how far down the name list we'll be by the beginning of october? about two weeks ago, remember bastardi mentioning how the ridging in the east should be broken around the middle of october.. and was thinking some kind of caribbean system could threaten around that possible time of extremes.. since he usually starts on things a couple weeks before they happen.. maybe i'll get to read about it before his site becomes pay.
HF 1737z20september