CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW LANDFALL ABOUT 230PM EASTERN ABOUT 50 MILES E OF THE W TIP OF CUBA. THOUGH MOVING AT 8MPH SOME SLOWING AND A NW TURN AS IT CROSSES CUBA WILL TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER LOW TO ITS WNW IN THE C GULF STARTS AGAIN TO HAVE SOME AFFECT. CURRENTLY VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CUBA WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS NEARING A FOOT IN SW LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE MASSIVE FLOODING ALMOST TO THE AFFECT OF MITCH IN HODURAS WITH THIS HURRICANE AS IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS STARTING LATE TONIGHT.TOTAL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY IN SW CUBA COULD REACH 3 FEET.
CURRENTLY NOTHING HAS CHANGED FROM MY PREVIOUS FORCAST BUT THE CHANCE OF MY 2ND TROUGH CATCHING ISADORE LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK HAS GONE DOWN SLIGHTLY. MY GENERAL THINKING WAS ISADORE WOULD MOVE NW INTO THE SE GULF JUST NW OF CUBA AND STALL OR MOVE ERRATICLY SAT INTO SUNDAY THEN MISS THE 2ND TROUGH (MAYBE) THEN WITH SUCH A LOW PRESSURE OF NEAR 938 MOVE W AND WSW AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE YUCITAN THEN W THEN WNW INTO THE TAMPICO AREA BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. I SAID THOUGH THAT THE 1ST TROUGH WILL MISS ISADORE BUT THEN 2ND WILL COME DOWN AND ALSO COULD WITH A SMALLER CHANCE, PICK UP ISADORE LIKE THE LBAR,NOGAPS,AND GGEM FORCASTS AND MOVE HIM NNE INTO TAMPA - PANHANDLE.
THAT WAS YESTERDAYS AND IM ALITTLE MORE PUZZLED BY THE 2ND TROUGH. LATEST RUN BY THE GEMM NOW ALSO SHIFTS GREATLY W TO NEAR MY TAMPICO LANDFALL AND SO ARE THE MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS. THIS SHOWS THAT THE 2ND TROUGH MIGHT NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT THOUGH IT WILL BE REAL STRONG. WITH THAT ASSUMPTION THIS ISADORE MOST BE FORCASTED TO BE REALLY STRONG. AVN CONTINUES SW AND NOW FORCASTS NEAR TAMPICO AND DOES THE UKMET AND MOST TROPICAL SUITES.NOGAPS PUSHES THIS ALITTLE MORE W NOW BUT STALLS IT FOR A DAY JUST N OF THE YUCITAN THEN BEGINS THE N AND NNE NOVE AGAIN. GFDL (WHICH ALWAYS CHANGES DIRECTION OF A SYSTEM MOST OFTEN) STILL TURNS ISADORE IN A LOOP THEN BACK TO THE N ALONG THE LINES OF THE NOGAPS. BUT THIS HAS BEEN A W TREND OF THIS. FIRST LOOP THEN NE GULF, THEN MOBILE , NOW TOWARDS NEW ORLEANS. DONT TAKE WHAT THE GFDL SAYS SO THIS MODEL I WILL JUST THOUGH OUT AS AFTER 48 HOURS OUT IT IS USLESS.
ALL IN ALL THE 2ND TROUGH COMING DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD PICK UP A TS OR WEAK HURRICANE, BUT ITS FORCASTED TO BE SO STRONG IT WONT. I WILL KEEP MY LONG RANGE FORCAST THE SAME AS I DONT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING HAPPENING UNLESS SOMEHOW IT STAYS UNDER A CAT 3 AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES ALITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. PEOPLE SHOULD WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT AS FAR AS MAKING LANDFALL THERE WILL BE NONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE 2ND TROUGH MISSES THIS SYSTEM AND IT CURLS W OF THE YUCITAN BY MONDAY EVENING THEN W IT WILL CONTINUE. THATS IT FOR NOW, SCOTTSVB