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Here is how the PEOPLE at NWS are interperting what they see from the models... EXTENDED FCST DISC VALID SUN SEP 22 2002 THRU THU SEP 26 2002 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 324 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002 ...MODEL DISCUSSION... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN STILL IS A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING WHAT EFFECT DEVELOPING HURRICANE "ISIDORE" MIGHT HAVE ON THE MAINLAND OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. EWD-DRIFTING STRONG UPPER RIDGES/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE W COAST OF CANADA AND OVER LABRADOR IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. IN BETWEEN...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF WILL DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VLY. THE UNANSWERED QUESTION REMAINS HOW SHARP SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE BASE OF THIS TROF WILL BE...AND WHETHER ANY OF THEM CAN PULL "ISIDORE" NWD INTO THE SERN STATES. CONCERNING DEVELOPING HURRICANE "ISIDORE".... DESPITE IT TAKING THE HURRICANE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE (LEFT OF ITS 00Z/19 TRACK) BY DAY 5...THE NEW 12Z AVN RUN CHANGED OUR THINKING VERY LITTLE FROM OUR 14Z RELEASE. THIS MORNING...I DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 06Z AVN EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN CONNECTION WITH "ISIDORE". OUR EXTRAPOLATION OF HURRICANE "ISIDORE" FROM THE OFFICIAL 12Z/19 NHC 72HR POSITION CONTINUES A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE 00Z/19 UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL HAD TAKEN A DECIDED TREND TOWARDS THE RIGHT FROM YESTERDAYS TRACK. THEY FORECAST THE STORM INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DAYS 4- 5...THREATENING THE ERN GULF COAST...WRN FL...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY DAY 6. THIS WAS IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH FAVORED THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL. A QUICK LOOK AT NEW 12Z/19 AVN/UKMET/NOGAPS RUNS MAY BE FAVORING A SWING OF THE PENDULUM BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH "ISIDORE" FOR DAYS 3-4...MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NEW 12Z AVN SPINS UP ANOTHER TROPICAL SYS NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON DAY 3 THEN DRIFTS IT NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS DEVELOPMENT AS SPURIOUS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DAYS 3-7 OVER FL...THE ERN GULF COAST...AND THE S ATLANTIC COAST. BUT WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT OF THIS SCENARIO THAN WE WERE THIS MORNING GIVEN THE WWD TRENDS OF THE 12Z/19 AVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET WITH "ISIDORE" DAYS 3-5. So they are battling the flip-flop's of the model data as well... And their Day 7 Surface map??? Day 7 sfc prog Lending more creedance to the thought that even if we DO get a due W or SW motion, that we are still looking like a Gulf Coast strike... |