In reply to:

but I tend to believe the non-professionals over the paid professionals

By far and large, you SHOULD listen to the paid professionals....most do an excellant job and on the whole, while often wrong, are much less likely to be wrong when it counts. Often I accuse them of not looking out the window before they make their forecasts, but you must remember, a forecast is just an educated guess about the future, and no human alive that I am aware of, has knowledge of the future....they, we, are all guessing. Paid professionals tend to guess better, but it is still a guess. Don't blindly follow *anyone*, but use your own head and get as many facts as possible and draw your own conclusions, but DO listen to the experts...Sleep well...