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Check out the last paragraph... 068 WTNT45 KNHC 210242 TCDAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002 ISIDORE SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT WAS CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA. THE EYE WAS OBSERVED BY RADARS FROM HAVANA ..LA BAJADA CUBA...AND KEY WEST. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESURE OF 964 MB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE EYE IS NOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT MOST OF THE CIRCULATION AND RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CUBA FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 06 UTC AND WILL DETERMINE IF ISIDORE LOST STRENGTH ON ITS LONG TREK OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST WINDS BETWEEN 90 AND 100 KNOTS. HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN IDEAL UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ISIDORE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT. MOST OF THEM SHOW A SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVING HURRICANE ALONG AND NOT FAR FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...I SEE TROUBLE ON THE HORIZON. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY KEPT ISIDORE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOW TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD. NOGAPS AND THE GFDL ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE NORTHWARD TURN BUT A LITTLE BIT SOONER. THE UK HAS BECOME THE ONLY MODEL THAT MOVES THE HURRICANE WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO. THIS NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THE STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND IN THE NORTHWARD TURN OF THE HURRICANE BUT THEY DIFFER IN THE TIMING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 22.4N 84.6W 85 KTS 12HR VT 21/1200Z 22.9N 85.4W 90 KTS 24HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 87.0W 100 KTS 36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 88.0W 105 KTS 48HR VT 23/0000Z 22.5N 89.0W 110 KTS 72HR VT 24/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 115 KTS |