Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 21 2002 05:27 PM
WIndows...

No. This is my uncle's house so I'm only boarding up my saferoom.

Cat - Yeah, I was supposed to buy an axe or hatchett at Home Depot today but I forgot. I'll pick one up from Ace on Tuesday if there is a more likely threat.
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Comments on the WSW/W movement. Isidore has moved 1.5 degrees west the last 12 hours putting her near 86.1 as of 11am EDT. Something all of us North Gulf Coasters are going to have to watch is how far west and how far north Isidore is at 72 hours. I'm much more worried about a WNW solution rather than a westerly one near term. When the eventual parabolic curve takes place, it's best for my area that Isidore is much further south. That increases the threat to points east of the AL/FL line. If she's up around 26 or 27, look out LA/MS. Also, a WNW track after 24-48 hours is far more disturbing to SE LA, Coastal MS residents. Having said that, I'm very comfortable with NHC's 92.5 option at 72 hours. They've done a good job so with their Isidore tracks and deserve credit for them so far. The only way Isidore doesn't get to 92.5 west is if the southerly component of the current track is not just temporary. Since the shortest distance between 2 points is a straight line, any deviation away from due west will lessen the liklihood that he actually makes it to 92.5. However, the 12 UTC tropical tracks bring him as far west as:

BAMD - 96.2
BAMM - 96.3
A98E - 93.9
LBAR - 92.0

The SHIP and DSHIP intensity models of 125 knots at 72 hours is pretty disturbing. If I remember my coversion table right, that's a solid 140mph Cat 4 storm.

Steve



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