utterly weird. thought the eye feature bobbing up and down on satelite looked strange.. guess this explains some of it. think this explains the stall also and until it is worked out the westward motion will be jiggy and erratic.
pretty much everybody but ukmet now has recurvature. 12z runs are coming out and nogaps has already gone back to bending the system sw for a while at least. looked at the hpc/ncep plots and got a strange show.. on it izzy moves to within maybe 150 miles of brownsville on friday morning, but by saturday is well ene of there, about 100 miles off the louisiana coast. dont think that one will hold water, but seeing the sharper recurvature sort of worried me.
go take a look at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fcsttxt.html
noted that the storm is further intensified on most models. safe to assume we will be dealing with a cat 4 shortly.
what to do with kyle.. some models turn it west in a couple of days, some just leave it floundering like a bug on a pin. on satelite it looks like the surface and upper centers are decoupled.. have to see if it realigns or what. the disagreement by different height centers on what kyle wants to do tells me at least that it is changing direction, that it's done going north for now. the earlier westward models have backed off for now, though.
92L and the system around the bahamas are pure mysteries at this point. 92L obviously isnt developing as fast as guidance wants it to, and seems to be staying well to the south. i dont picture the strong system in the northern islands, but the weak, west moving one in the southern islands. the complex upper system east of florida.. several places low level systems could form around here, and probably more than one will try. hard to say which will be the victor out of this.. but the southern system avn first advertised and other models have caught on to.. is becoming more credible.
back when gustav was passing hatteras on september 10th, i figured that the active span was done.. but here we are on the 21st and were up to k, with probably one or two more on the way. the old 12-8-4 prediction from november is now threatened, just as the official ones have already gone down. those ludicrous high guesscasts some of you made last fall that i inwardly scoffed at are now within reach.. have to wonder. K storm on september 21st.. last time we paced this high was 1995. actually reached K on august 27th that year, but were still on M at this date.
HF 1918z21september