isidore's eye is much better defined in the last few hours.. but i see evidence of maybe 3 concentric eyewalls on the cancun radar. intensity is probably going to oscillate a lot as eyewall replacement cycles should be happening next few hours.. probably lead to more erratic center jogs as well. net movement today has been essentially west.. think that will continue through 48hrs.. system should move in jerks 5 to 8mph and temporary stalls. storm total rainfall from this system is going to be catastrophic in various parts of the caribbean/mexico. i dont have any new ideas on endgame movement.. still think the ridge rebuilds and turns it nw on about tuesday, then the strong late week shortwave grabs it and curves it NE into the central gulf coast.
kyle. still not rated a tropical storm, not sure why.. it is one. the passing trough to its north that stopped it will be replaced by ridging aloft and turn it west. it should do the clockwise loop.. start to intensify coming out of it. think the westward movement is maybe a little underdone.
td 13.. that is, soon to be lili... heading for the caribbean. gfdl, various models have it turning north late in the period. since it should be intensifying, the ridge periphery probably will mark its turn. as a whole the models tend to take it across the central leeward islands and then very close or over puerto rico as a strengthening category 1 hurricane... in the late monday to early wednesday timeframe. aside from any marilyn-esque strengthening shouldnt be a big deal.
system near the bahamas.. bastardi has dropped the monday coast runner idea... still thinks something may brew up when the ridge rebuilds. there should be a surface trough lingering in the area, but it's wait and see.
system near 30w... has a ssd d-rating on it. 1.0. no invest by nrl yet, but may be one soon. modeling is split into two camps.. one recurves it early, developing a weak system that turns east under the big deep layer trough between the azores and spain. others keep it weak and open and track it west. looks to be worth watching, at least.. but will have a tough time developing.
HF 0346z22september