Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 22 2002 12:36 PM
Re: Southwest Louisiana

Where you at? Cameron? Holly Beach? Could get hairy if the 6z's are right.

And to answer your question, absolutely. If there is any hint after 48 hours of a LA landfall, it's going to start with the usual suspects - Grand Isle and lower Jefferson Parish, Lower Lafourche, Lower Terrebonne, St. Mary Parish, Plaquemines, etc. That's where they usually begin for different reasons. Grand Isle is one of the most susceptible places in the US. There's only one road across the island and it's always inundated long before landfall. The Bayous (Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Mary) come next because of a lack of access out. The low spot on Hwy. 90 between Lockport and Houma was underwater for weeks after the last threat - Frances/Georges - and it's the only east/west artery for hundreds of thousands of people. Those areas are very low lying and grow worse each year as the land sinks and becomes part of the Gulf of Mexico. There is some flood protection down there, but not much. New Orleans emergency management officials don't shoot from the hip much, but the city can't stop a Cat 4. The concrete floodgates and locks might work up to a fast moving Cat 3, but they can't protect against a Cat 4. They will start with an orderly evacuation of those most difficult to move and then probably onto a general evacuation. Mandatory in LA is like in most other places. If you refuse to leave and they don't take you away, you pass on notification of next of kin. If they fear a threat between New Iberia and Biloxi, they'll start the process. Things should be smoother than for Georges because the I-10 and the I-59 are now ready to be opened up for one way traffic out. That's 6 lanes moving away from town and should ease the pressures we saw during Georges when it took up to 8 hours to get from New Orleans to Baton Rouge. The conservative estimate of 72 hours to evacuate the city is probably now down in the 55 hour range.

Hope that answers your question. Go Saints!

Steve



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