meto, i can promise you this thing isnt coming back to central florida. youve been calling it to turn north, northeast, and now east northeast to get it to you.. eventually youll be calling due east and southeast too i guess.
other day i shifted my strike zone over from morgan city to fort walton. have the feeling i may be sliding it west some more. not ready to sucker up to the latest guidance just yet.. but yeah, im sure that question this morning about people betting it wouldnt cross certain longitude lines was directed mostly at me.. it was my choice of words. what can i say, its headed that way. opal came up from over at 93w.. so that sort of defines the limit of how far west i think it can go and still come back to hit the central gulf coast.
heres the rehash of what i was pondering yesterday morning.. im back to it. system sort of dances along the yucatan coast.. perhaps even does what bastardi describes. for the life of me i still think that rebuilt ridging to the east will give the storm a northerly component... which would lead to a phasing ahead of the large shortwave late this week. system will probably be weaker than this morning. heights are already rising southeast of izzy, so thinking the turn on nhc official on tuesday is probably about right.
by the way.. 934mb? 122kt flight level winds? d6.5? category 3? its like one of those test questions, choose which of the above does not belong.
kyle.. more of a push now on some models to kick kyle westward, starting maybe tomorrow. interesting that some retrograde the big east atlantic trough back a few degrees and turn kyle into it. i dont think that will happen. by the way, when are they going to drop the stupid subtrop thing? should have been switched over when the deep convection cdo attempt formed yesterday.
td13.. ahh. its racing. when formative that was one of the ideas i presented.. but then discarded when guidance made it a hurricane.. and the ridging aloft was visible. but this morning, its decided to go streaking. might kill itself after all. not quite fifty fifty as a slowdown is forecast, but pretty good chance that lili will be waiting. if/when this thing gets organized the track will be south of puerto rico.
the d-rated wave/low out near the cape verdes is moving slowly with an upper trough ahead. nhc outlook maps have a possible tropical cyclone on them for this system. but right now, doubt it can develop.
the upper low/surface trough east of florida, which has kept isidore from recurving, is probably peaking out its cycle. around tuesday perhaps something will attempt to form in the large area of disturbed weather around it.
long long post finished. yeah, i know ive blown it so far on isidore, in the long run. but theres still evidence to support it coming up in the middle of the gulf.. looks best to me. thats what ill go with.
have to say though, the mexico option looks really easy from here.
HF 1516z22september