Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed May 29 2002 09:20 PM
Re: A Question

>>Those storms that are currently headed south from Texas into the GOM? Is there any possiblity that once they hit the open waters that they could become something? Or just more bad weather for the evil oil rigs? I really am interested as there seems to be a lot of convection headed out into the Gulf

1) Check out the SC/NC radar loops. If nothing else, the coastal areas and possibly the low country are getting some much needed rainfall.

2) As to the complex heading down south of Houston, Dr. Joe Sobol on accuweather point/counterpoint today noted that something was going to cut off down in the Gulf. I think, if nothing else, we're seeing the beginnings of the switch in direction from a blazing flow out of the west to a more seasonal flow out of the east, southeast and south. Bastardi said about a week ago that in the 10-15 day period, there was the potential for tropical mischief further west than 90L or 91L could have been.

So it's up in the air. I've seen it happen before, but ususally that stuff just falls apart. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, tonight's models do with that complex. There has been a hint on some of them that the western gulf would be an area of weak low pressure in the coming days (I think it was the AVN and Canadian, but I can't exactly remember).

Steve



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