Hey Shawn, it's gonna depend on if their is any NE movement after 72hrs, the NHC didn't go beyond 25N 93W, and didn't say, unless I missed it, anything except that NOGAPS was a little to the east(In their opinion). If he rides 93W straight up he'll be less then 150 miles from you. Anything to the west and you'll tell us all about it from a personal point of view. It looks like Cat1 winds up to 100 miles from the center, TS winds up to 200. Water will be real rough(I had Floyd pass about 100 miles from here, he stirred it up pretty good), I don't think rain will be a huge deal unless he's on you. Keep track as NHC gives more clues about where he's going, don't pay the models too much attention. Hope that helps, and best of luck.

Joe in Jax