HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Sep 23 2002 03:33 PM
consider

a storm of isidore's magnitude would generally have about four or five days of life in it after landfall.. where it could re-emerge and start back up. personally think that intensity and track are now completely shot.. but im 100% against it dying over the yucatan. the center would redevelop offshore if the main one was dying.. circulation envelope with this system is huge. probably a very weak surface system that comes off.. the upper system should be quite healthy unless it spends a couple more days onshore.. so if it emerges today or tomorrow look for it to intensify back to hurricane fairly quickly. by the way, think the further east and weaker track option.. #3.. is on the table now.
td13.. recon is there. already finding 39kt flight level winds, no vortex message yet. even if the center is weak this system is moving so quickly that its improbably that it isnt producing gale force winds, so this should be lili today.
kyle is drifting wsw finally. if it can deepen some then the deep layer flow will push it wsw faster.
bastardi's pinwheel low is up off the mid atlantic today as a low cloud swirl with enhanced precip ahead. still maybe another disturbance that will evolve near the bahamas as the upper system leaves. and the wave 35-40w is depressed but some of its energy has made it west. the new emergent wave is still energetic, but gets the upper trough pretty shortly.
again i reiterate.. even if the center of isidore remains over land for days until it dies, a new one would probably develop offshore. all you folks calling it dead have a flailing beast and one nail about halfway driven through the coffin lid.
HF 1536z23september



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