4:30PM Update

Report from Barbados: Barbados Report
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 47 MPH (41 KT) gusting to 75 MPH (65 KT)

Lili is nearing or at hurricane strength.

Isidore has stopped its southward motion... critical to watch for a northward turn now...

More later.

11:45 AM Update
Tropical Storm Lili has formed according to recon and the nhc... Next advisory will reflect it. Winds 50MPH.

Original Update

Apologies for the short update, but my day job is leaving me little time to analyze.

Isidore has weakened and has lost its main core eye, drifting over the Yucatan. I'm going to differ from most places now and suggest that it will not make the turn north--it may go back over water however. (I have more crow ready if this doesn't happen). However, even with that said, we all still need to watch it. Isidore will do what it wants to. I think this one isn't done with surprises quite yet.

The NHC's track takes it into the open Gulf and strethens it back to hurricane strength. However, not as extreme intensity wise as previous forecast tracks.
What would I go with, even with my own prediction? I wouldn't go with me... go with the NHC... I have more respect for them.

TD#13 looks ok, but moving a bit fast.. As the center is out under from all the convection. I still think we will see lili from it probably in short oder this afternoon (waiting on recon)
Cancun, Mexico Radar

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model Plots from WREL[/url]

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]