11:00 am discussion

<<<<ISIDORE WAS MOVING 180/5...BUT RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT MOTION HAS CHANGED TO AN EASTWARD DRIFT...POSSIBLY AS PART
OF A LOOP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING RIDGING FORECAST BY THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND NORTHWARD BY 72 HR. TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GREATEST
DIFFERENCES COMING IN SPEED. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST...CALLING
FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONG TROUGHING WEST OF ISIDORE...THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO
FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SLOWER...SIMILAR TO BUT
MOVED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION.>>>>

Intensity models are decreasing due to the collipse of the core wall and projections for it to weaken to minimal TS strength prior to getting back over water....... forecasted to 90k in 72 hours