Something occured to me, and looking at some of the 6Z runs of the GFDL, it kind of fuels my curiosity.... Is there too much tropical activity for the models to handle right now? Just an observation of the conflicting runs of the 6Z GFDL runs for Isisdore and Lili. Isidore's GFDLTakes Isidore into La in 72 hours as a cat 1 and into Canada by 120. Lili, on the Isidore run, ends up as an open wave in the western Carib. Now in the 6Z run for Lili, at 84 hours, Izzy makes landfall as a cat 1 on the la/TX border. Hurricane Lili is over Western Cuba. Then it really gets interesting, Lili's run leaves Izzy Meandering about the La/Tx border through 120 hours and has a cat2/3 hurricane very near the SW Florida coast at 120 hours. Two runs of the same models with slightly different focuses and two tottaly different outcomes. I'm not even going to throw kyle into this. Of course, this is just looking at the GFDL becuase it offers us a specific focus. I just wonder how much trouble the other models have with the interaction of all the activity.