while all of the forecasting chaos has been going on close to home, that little system behind lili has started showing signs of organization. one piece split off and went northwest, the rest is following the itcz.. it was the northwest piece that was written off due to shear, but it is actually holding down a convective mass and appears to have banded low level clouds feeding into it. there hasnt been an invest put on it, but a couple of models i summarily discounted foresaw this feature riding nw, and curving east under the deep trough in the eastern atlantic. theres still a lot of shear up there and waters near 18/37.. close to its location.. are marginal. but there it is, holding down convection all the same. the wave that came off to its southeast by the way is looking healthy convection-wise.
closer in, more models taking kyle further south and west now. cmc run even has it to 25/60. note that kyle isnt moving much.. it would have to deepen to really get caught in the NE flow. then again its appearance has been improving since it reached the top of its loop last night and was getting sheared as it dissociated from the upper trough that was letting go. kyle is out in fish country, but if some models are to be believe then it could be pretty close to bermuda in a few days.
lili... more intense on the 2pm mini advisory.. but i can see the llc racing ahead again. note how far to the south it is entering the caribbean.. it's going into the 'hurricane graveyard'. im not ready to buy the more zealous forecasts on this storm just yet. it's still trying to race and in a historically bad place for hurricanes. until it slows down i wont be fully convinced of its threat.
swirl off nc has some convection forming on the west flank. water temps are supposed to be at support threshhold as far up the coast as south jersey, so this could become a good coastal rainstorm before it reaches southeast new england. further south there is talk of a siamese twin to isidore forming near cuba/bahamas. nothing overtly suggestive at this point, but still the nagging feeling that models are on to something, if not the details about that something.
isidore.. the big story still. my ideas still follow that it will re-enter the gulf and head nw, then north.. but nhc getting less and less sure about the future west movement. coincidentally, storm hasnt crossed 90w. wouldnt it be hilarious if it never does.. after my concession the other day? ah well, i'll join the 'general warning' crowd and say 'all interests from texas to florida should monitor the progress of this system'. isnt that dull?
i slid to option three.. se louisiana to ms/al coast this morning. staying there for now. cat 3 intensity sounds good to me.
HF 1837z23september