I think the immediate story is going to be the upper low that cuts off over the NW Gulf. If it sits in there for at least 2 days, it's a weather maker. No model has any concensus as to what it will do. NOGAPS recognizes at 48 but not at 72. No other model really even picks up on it that much. If you watch the WV Loop, you can see the trof split occurring and why the low is likely to close off over the NW Gulf instead of the E-Central Gulf Coast.

As to whether the energy slides SSW into Mexico or not is anyone's guess. The models - as we all know - tend to be all over the place and changing daily in these transitional seasons (spring-summer and summer-fall). But the pictures don't lie.

The two areas to watch this weekend will be off the W LA/Upper TX coast and S/SE of Miami. There could be some flooding rains in coastal South Carolina today due to the massive swath of moisture training up that way today.

Oh yeah - only 2 more days til the start of the season. Everyone needs to get their predictions in on the Prediction Thread in the Storm Forums at least by 6/5.

Steve