ahh.. 5pm. isidore came ashore about 24 hours ago. hasnt had enough sightseeing time in the yucatan i guess. when reports start coming in from down there about the flooding this slow mover has caused.. not going to be pretty.
i'm going to call isidore's movement today 'quasi stationary'. it hasnt moved a degree in any direction since this morning and thats still enough for me. every time the storm wobbles somebody claims it to be the new direction, but i'm not buying. think it will drift northwest or north overnight and be back offshore some time tomorrow. hard to say how quickly it will spin back up. the low level cyclonic envelope is massive.. covers the nw caribbean and just about the entire gulf. aloft one notices the rather large anticyclone. some people this morning saying 'izzy's a goner!' gave me a pretty good laugh.. their observations were about as nonsensical as saying andrew was going to weaken to a depression crossing south florida. anyhow.. dont see isidore getting a steady north movement until it is deepening again.. think the nhc track is much too fast. earliest this thing will be up on the northern gulf coast is friday. coincedentally i do think movement will be northeast at the time of landfall... somewhere in the central gulf coast. think the people calling it back to florida need to consider the ridging that has built over there.. the storm would have to wait til the weekend to come back there.. and with lili maybe running up around the same time you dont have a place to put em both. cant have two hurricanes.. thats got my crying buckets for florida. awww...
lili.. bill earlier you asked what i was thinking when i said the center was running ahead again. look at the convective bulge on the southwest side of the storm, notice the low level clouds banded around underneath. that would be the center. the curvature in the high clouds is still NE of there.. lili isnt stacked. thats why ive said it wont really intensify until it slows down, improves its structure.
kyle isnt moving much. it's blazing along at light speed compared to izzy, but still not moving much.
other areas.. nothing imminent. seeing another storm in the next few days wouldnt surprise me though.
marco... polo. polo.. is actually an eastpac name.. would be funny if they put them on same-year name lists.
HF 2131z23september