i was wrong about how far west of its convection lili is, but at least not about it being there. think the 60mph winds are a little generous. important change in the advisory was forward speed.. slowed to 17mph. it was going 23 this morning. i'm starting to lose my doubts about it's survival.. but still think the nhc track is too strong and too far north.
isidork (like the rename choice) is still doing what it does best.. nothing. ive been hearing its going this way, or starting to go that way.. all day. after i kept predicting it to move offshore last night and it just sat on its little piece of yucatan real estate in defiance.. ive decided not to make any assumptions until i see it really move. by this i mean twenty miles in one direction. that would be something at this point. will not be surprised if i wake up tomorrow and find that it has failed to do so. think the nhc track is too fast and intensity is too low.. as i think the storm will regenerate very quickly once offshore. if isidore isnt offshore by tomorrow afternoon the louisiana landfall is off, it will definitely go further east.
kyle, the much neglected fish spinner.. is if nothing else going to have a very interesting track. in about five days its westward steering flow will weaken, and it will probably do another loop while the ridge rebuilds. it is worth noting that long range modeling has ridging in the western atlantic generally holding.. so we could be still talking about kyle next week.
elsewhere.. have the nagging suspicion that something else will try to develop from the cape verdes. also still keeping an eye east of the bahamas as convection there is in a weaker shearing environment.
HF 0409z24september