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Isidore is moving NW and should make landfall in approximately 48 hours. This tells me that today and tomorrow will likely be the worst weather on the Gulf. 48 hours puts it just south of Terrebonne Parish as a Cat 1. Pressure is 985. I see two factors that will determine if he can get better organized: 1) eventual forward speed; 2) whether or not an anti-cyclonic/upper high develops overtop of Isidore. Lyons made one good point yesterday and that was that Iz had become a broad cyclone and lost some of it's upper support as it just sat and spun. Outer bands are now on the Coast of LA south of N.O. There is some fringe rain rotating west near Pensacola. I don't see this as a major event at this point. Hopefully we'll get a day off Wed. or Thurs. It's pretty breezy here which doesn't happen on a September night unless there is a cold front or tropical influence, so the march is on. I'd be surprised if she makes it to Cat 2, but both Joe B. and the NHC are hinting as much. Rainfall might be 6-12" along the coast - if that. Because the sphere of influence is so big, effects likely will be felt between Talahassee/St. George to maybe even Galveston but more likely Lake Charles. Rarely will you see a TS or H raining over that much of the Gulf unless it's moving generally east or generally west near the coastline. Could be an interesting day! Time to go BACK to sleep. Steve |