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Assuming Izzy is going to pick up forward speed. I can't see much above high Cat 1 for this system. Marginal Cat 2 seems to require a slower forward speed then forecast, IMHO. Izzy's lower level structure just got to disrupted to pull it together faster. Based on past gulf systems, I would say it is even possible that Izzy stays at TS level. The upper circulation is so large now, I don't know if the lower levels can constrict fast enough. However, if Izzy goes at a slower forward speed then forecast, all of this is off. I think NHC's current track makes sense; but if Izzy doesn't get to full forward speed. there could be a Cat 2 at the Al/MS border in a few days. |