Tue Sep 24 2002 12:12 PM

isidore.. center is mostly low clouds. maybe daytime heating will start some convection near the core, and the upward forcing by the storm will start the snowball rolling again. as the discussion says, southern main rainband is still in the BOC, once that clears it should mark the latest time intensification should begin. once the cdo is established isidore should begin to recover fairly quickly. btw agree models have a westward bias, but not much of one. more and more confident impact point will be se louisiana.
lili.. 1006mb and 70mph.. unusual wind pressure relationship, but there is recon info with 76kt flight level winds to confirm this intensity. westward motion still slowing.. only a couple more mph and the deepening curve should steepen. interesting that in the long range even if this storm comes up east of florida, it could either head for nc or get caught if ridging builds back quickly enough.
kyle.. near the end of the forecast period supposed to be slowing down and maybe bending left of its path. basically agree with bastardi that kyle is stuck and should be meandering for quite some time, working its way westward. yesterday's mrf had an eastward moving wave in the subtropics near the bahamas on october 3-4.. which may represent kyle. around that time the eastern u.s. is supposed to be under deep, strong ridging.. but this is 10 days into the future and not reliable.
got a feeling that we'll have one more development before september is out. even with all the crowding going on.
HF 1614z24september

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