My two cents worth is this:

1)The forecast models have shifted back slighty to the west. No matter what you may actually see happening in the short term, and since he's really more stalled then anything else, they won't change their longterm(48-72hrs) forecast untill the models (which have been terrible with this storm) move one way or the other. They have been going in an east-west cycle for the last week. So don't expect any changes at 5, but maybe at 11. Look, at 5:00 PM Sunday, when they changed their tune and raelly started calling for a northward turn, they said that in 48hrs, or 5:00 PM to today he'd be at 22.3N,92.7W. It was only off by 200 miles

.Izzy really, really doe not need to be compared to any other storm; he's been doing things his own way the whole time, and he has no respect for history IMHO.

2) Politics now comes into play. Any changes in the watches and warnings will cause local goverments to step up or step down their preps. These things cost money, and could cause evacs that may not be needed.They more than likely feel that with TS warnings(not a watch) their covered, at least for the moment. Watch Lili, if she starts that classic turn into the Bahama's, send Florida into a panic. When Floyd came by, the whole southern part of the state jamed I95 and turned it into a parking lot. Even if we had wanted to leave here in NE FL we could't, there was no way out.

Joe in Jax