Tue Sep 24 2002 07:44 PM
where are we...?

isidore: hasnt changed much today. inner core is bare, convection is all in bands 200 miles away. no significant changes until cdo starts to redevelop, and i cant predict when that will happen. it SHOULD happen at some point, but the later it does, the weaker the storm. notice nhc official intensity at landfall keeps getting lower and lower.
track philosophy.. still staying with southeast louisiana. not going away from that until it's obviously headed northeast. it has jogged that way a couple of times but headed generally north.
lili: too much hype already. i keep hearing east coast of florida and such. still not entirely sure it is going to hold together.. in spite of its intensification the system is elongated per recon reports, and still getting sheared fairly heavily. the orientation of the shear is changing.. so in all sensible logic the storm should begin to finally organize.. but still uncertain. nhc track is finally shifting to the south in the short term.. but i'm south in the long term. think jamaica a more likely target than haiti. the bastardi idea that this doesnt come up, but cuts off near the florida straits.. is what im going to go with. i sort of saw it crossing the caribbean and coming up behind isidore, but looks like the post isidore ampification should stay north and just stall it or something. lots of land interaction possible, making an intensity forecast is useless.
kyle: should slowly keep working south and west. it's cut off behind a mean ridge, and when that ridge is strong it will be driven along the periphery. by the way nhc has been too low with intensity, this system is a hurricane as we speak. of course, in a year of 954mb tropical storms i dont expect them to come that close.
nothing else in the basin threatening. mrf in the long range has some western caribbean suggestions, but still waiting for more verification on the synoptic pattern, and any potential spark system that would be needed there.
HF 2346z24september

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