Okay, so yeah - they suck. But do they all, all the time? No way. European (ECMWF) has been predicting landfall in SE/SC LA for a week. NOGAPS has been on it since Friday at 12Z. Timing was off, but they caught the landfall assuming it does hit LA.

How bout it for the N or NNW movement that's been showing up the last few days? Everyone here - including the paid experts - figured on a landfall NE of the tracks. When it came down to it, the models eventually beat everyone but Frank P.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/Gulf.gif

That's a decent IR shot from LSU that shows the center apparently riding up 90.

Steve