izzy's probably 12 hours from landfall. crunch time, any last minute strengthening could still get it up to minimal hurricane, and break the cycle. there is some convection north of the center, and tons of subsidence cutting around the center from the west. adds to the baroclinic character isidore has been showing. still going with houma, borderline hurricane at most.
lili continues to burst convection and have its center repeatedly jump out to the west and then reform. nhc has been predicting shear to stop mangling the system for about two days now, yet it still keeps ripping away. lili appears to have gained a little latitude today with its jumpy and slower westward motion. if this doesnt kill itself it will end up meandering near florida/cuba/bahamas early next week.
kyle is hurricane, according to the nhc. like i needed them to tell me. official track turns it south and even southeast after 48hrs.. and starts weakening it. low confidence i reckon, should meander after 48 or so, maybe all weekend. still think this will be coming westward next week if it survives.
a small low has formed east of virginia.. with some limited convection. this was a coastal storm represented on models to lead isidore.. doubt it will try anything, but it is over warm enough water in a developing baroclinic environment..
out near 23/41, moving north there is still that old wave that was turned north behind lili. it should turn east beneath the deep low near the azores.. shear is lightening. dont expect anything.. but still keeping an eye on it.
african waves significantly weaker and probably not getting another cape verde system this year.. place shuts down about now usually.
in the long range.. west caribbean and BOC may have frontal tails that get left behind and caught under ridging during the next couple of weeks. it's the time of year for those things to happen.
HF 2240z25september