>TWC just said they expect Lili to stay on the n/nw course for several days. I wonder if they know something we dont. If thats the case, I see it going through the keys and into the gulf. Could this be? <

I wouldn't be sure who knows what. Let me quote the 11 pm disscussion:
I DON'T QUITE UNDERSTANDTHE MECHANISM FOR THIS NORTHWARD MOTION...BUT SINCE THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO ALREADY BE DOING SO...

Sometimes I can't believe some of this stuff. If anybody does understand, please call the NHC and tell them. I think the forecast models just perform badly in this area of the world, as far as hurricanes go, and their forecasting relies way to much on them. Are we no better off than we were 50 years ago?

Lili, for whatever reason that the NHC "doesn't understand", is moving NNW. It is still forecast to turn more to NW-WNW during the day(or evening) tomorrow. It appears that it will ride the coast of Cuba(which coast I'm not sure now) toward an entry into the GOM. This should keep Lili from not getting above Cat1 for awhile, if she even reachs that point. Western Cuba is far from flat; if she finds herself stuck over land to long she may well be tore apart again. If none of the above happens, it will be for reasons I don't understand.

Kyle is going through a tough time right now. Best bet is keep an eye on him, but don't break a sweat yet. Still talking days before anybody can be sure what will happen with him.

Goodnight and sleep tight.

Joe in Jax