Just a comment or two.

What 12z model runs I have seen are fairly consistent with Lili. Most agree on a track up the southern coast of Cuba into the gulf. All also seem to show some kind of movement to her, which at the moment isn't really happening. It looks more like her eye is 'jumping' to the north. Last few hours the visible sat has shown a big blow up right on top of the 'eye', but the system as a whole hasn't really moved. Something tells me for the next couple of days she's going to show more convection during the overnight hours then during the day. My guess is in the open gulf by tuesday?

Kyle hangs on, even though he does look like he moved to NE the last couple of frames. Models are begining to connect his fate to two things: how strong the ridge above him will be(they tend to disagree on that) and where Lili goes(more agreement). They seem to want to say the farther west Lili makes landfall, the more of a threat he will be to FL. Those that want to take her NO-east tend to just about kill him off.

By the way Kevin, another thing to look for with Kyle is one of these CV storms developing, then turning north(passing him to the east) which might push him a little further to the SW. And another storm to compare him to might be Dora(64) who also hit FL going straight as an arrow west, coming from above the Bahama's.

Joe in Jax