i heard kyle compared to andrew above.. sorry, time for me to step on that idea. andrew was a summer hurricane under a large, retrograding ridge, with a sharp upper trough backing behind it that kept the ridge from adding any northerly component until it stopped backing and turned andrew in the gulf. right now we've got a stationary, pulsing ridge with a mean position near the southeast coast.. this doesnt compare synoptically to andrew. if you want a comparison track, look no further than olga last nov/dec.. which was in a more extreme, late season version of a locked pulsing ridge pattern.
kyle is weakening for now and drifting wnw. assuming the forecasted shear lets up the storm should start pulling itself together early next week. interesting that the 12z nogaps and ukmet are almost identical, and have cast aside the eastward turn.. kyle actually turns sw again after 72hr as a surface high builds down off the continent... and is edging into the bahamas and deepening.
for lili, globals continue the quasi stationary motion for a short while then have it moving just north of west.. clipping the yucatan and heading for tx/la. gfdl takes it off right away.. as it did with isidore consistently.. and is not to be trusted for forward motion. note that lili isnt strengthening right now.. perhaps getting some of the same shear as kyle, to a lesser degree.
94L is already moving wnw.. most globals turn it up near 40w and dont strengthen it much.. going to go with this idea. if this organizes it will probably be a weak fish spinner. it is still broad and the environment is not exceptionally favorable.. but passable i guess.
fairly good model agreement that we get another hurricane in the gulf this week... and another nearing the bahamas later on. should be a very interesting span.
HF 2059z28september