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Thanks for pointing that out Frank, proves that I can be fallable at times. I really should have realized that Andrew was in a summertime ridging pattern...and for some reason I made a bad connection. Thanks for squashing the idea, it was a bad one indeed. Olga, on the other hand, is pretty decent analog. Olga not only had shear, but she had dry air to contend with near the Bahamas as well. The situation with Kyle, in the long-run, may be much different. I remember Olga was in the GOM 4-5 days after it had dissipated. Kyle does look like a "pancake" on his eastern side. No ventilation at all, Kyle is pretty sick right now. The only thing keeping him alive at this point would be the deep ball of convection---keeps going like an Energizer Battery. Kyle should be different from Olga in the end simply because Olga was in late November, this time around we're in late September. Big difference there in terms of shear values. Kevin |