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kyle: maybe going to do another anticyclonic loop. storm is probably done weakening, but not in a position to restrengthen either. there is more diversity in model tracks, so the westward track is now more unsure... but i'm betting it will roll east then south, then back west as a large surface high builds off to the northwest. lili: strength has oscillated quite a bit during the last 48hr.. land interaction is keeping the storm in a spurty mode. once it clears jamaica, appears to be set up to deepen quite rapidly. already has an inner core more typical of a mature hurricane, for some reason... with an eye being reported by recon and a hint of a banding eye in satelite shots at times. eventual track wnw.. probably through the yucatan channel.. and towards the louisiana coast. this could be quite a strong hurricane if it stops running over land. 94L: hitting a pretty good upper shear axis.. low level vortex was probably less than a day from depression strength. might continue wnw-nw under shear and emerge in the low shear zone further west.. with enough left to begin intensification. this is very uncertain.. this system could become another named tropical cyclone. HF 1806z29september |