The last part of todays 11AM National Hurricane Center Discussion on Lili states "BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A MAJOR HURRICANE NEARING THE GULF COASTLINE IN THREE DAYS TIME". This says it all.

Apologies for the lack of updates, I was taking a break because Lili will be the story this week. Lili is forecast to be a major Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico mid week, nearing either the Northern Texas or Louisiana coastline. This one won't have the Yucatan to pulll it apart like Isidore, so everyone along the Gulf coast, and especially the areas I mentioned needs to watch the storm like a hawk.

Now to dehype. The storm is just barely a hurricane, and is about to clip Jamaica, the Caymans, and Western Cuba again. Causing even more rain and a bit of wind for them, when they do not need it. Later on in the week the NHC has it nearing Lousiana and North Texas. I don't see any reason right now to disagree, but anything is possible. Ignore the hype and watch the facts and do as the local authorities say. Once lili is in the Gulf, it will not be a meanderer like Isidore was, so the time is shorter. The water is very warm in the gulf and can support a major hurricane, and that is what the hurricane center is predicting also. Be aware of this fact, and be ready to take action if the need arises.

Kyle is still around as well, now threatening Bermuda again, but moving away from the US.

Havana, Cuba Radar

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]