a'ite, here goes. lili was just upgraded to hurricane and nhc keeps mentioning 'rapid intensification criteria' as being met. lili's got RIC. barring the influence of cuba and the yucatan, which should keep the rapid intensification from going down during the next 36hr.. by wednesday the storm should be deepening quite a bit. this should slow thursday as it reaches a lower ocean heat area near the coast. just going to make an arbitrary intensity forecast to go with my beaumont, tx area strike thursday afternoon..
12hr(11pm 9/30)--983mb, 80mph
24hr(11am 10/1)--978mb, 85mph
36hr(11pm 10/1)--974mb, 90mph
48hr(11am 10/2)--963mb, 105mph
60hr(11pm 10/2)--948mb, 120mph
72hr(11am 10/3)--944mb, 135mph
landfall ~78hr, 5pm 10/3--942mb, 140mph
there, that isnt very nice. probably a little on the high side. bastardi has it in the 2/3 range.. nhc official is 3. i'm shooting for 3/4. not just to be different.. think it possible.
for kyle, most models calling for recurvature now. it looks more feasible.. just taking it east. bastardi is talking of some energy getting left behind under the ridge and coming back.. some lunar tidal event that has a history of storms falling near it.. i dunno about that, but any energy left behind could indeed become a new storm. as for kyle.. about ready to hang my hat on it going out.
94L.. an llc came out this morning.. this thing was pretty near depression. it's under the worst of the shear, with subsidence but lighter shear on the other side.. by tomorrow it may be across (unless it runs straight into the e-w jet). still has a chance at development, but really going to have to fight.
anyhow, lili, thursday afternoon/evening, beaumont, tx. 3/4 range. 940-950mb. 120-145mph.
HF 1555z30september