I think that is a function of the fact that she's likely to pass nearer to Key West than any other American Point in the next day or so. Look at the A, B, C, D columns. Key West is 9% during "A" and 8% "B" (8am Tues to 8pm Tues) and 1% C. They added them all up and came up with 18%. New Iberia at 13% is the current highest probability in "D" (8am Wed to 8am Thurs). New Iberia is my landfall call within 60 miles. The reason I think Buras went down is that it's now evident to the TPC that Lili is going to pass south of her - possibly by as much as 125 miles. In no way IMHO is the threat to FL increasing with time - certainly not the peninsula. You guys should get off without even any feeder bands except possibly extreme SW FL might get clipped with a brief squall.

And you should know this: The main threat to Florida this year is from Paloma! Paloma is coming, and he/she's coming to get us all!

Steve