go to sports bar... anyways Kyle is indeed moving SSW. Location is now near 27.5N and 67.2W. Location by the NHC early this morning was bases on Qicksat pass near12z. The center is a very tight gradiant with not much inflow to the E of the system. Currently Kyle is still inline to pick up the westerlys but barely as they will come down to near 25N over the next 24 hours. If Kyle can feel more of the ridge to its W and get to near25N and 70W by late tonight then he could make it under the ridge. Some models do show a brief S jog before the E turn. This E turn isnt forcasted anyways till late tonight or early Tuesday morning. Timing is very important.Right now Kyle is stuck between a building strong ridge off the NE coast of Florida and a weaker ridge to his ESE. The florida ridge will build more S over the state and the bahamas as the westerlys move down and east of the high near Kyle. Basically next 12-18hours will determine if Kyle can make it under or near 25N and 70W.
Lilly is getting better organized and should maintain a WNW movement over the next few days and turn N late in the 5 day period by the time she gets to near 92W. Generally all the models are in agreement and we see nothing in the WV to let us know nothing will stop her progress WNW till she gets to this point. Westerlys by Friday over the southern Great planes will begin to affect Lilly and cause some sheer and turn the system N then NE just after landfall. Currently landfall is forcasted to be just east of the TX/LA border by near 100 miles or less. BTW colleen percentages go up when a system gets closer to a city in miles from that point to the center of a system, but it doesnt mean its going to hit that location, for example you live near tampa and your percentages might go up slightly until later tuesday night then they should be nonexistant. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter