ill be checking my intensity against fixes over the next 60hr.. by the time lili is making landfall i should be on the road back home... but until then, betting i wont be off by more than 8mb/15mph. give or take 50miles on the landfall point, if i have to make any corrections i'd expect to nudge it east.. but doubt i'll be going past say atchafalaya bay.
kyle just did the center reform stunt... now it's a complex system that, as scott alluded to.. could possibly get under the westerlies. funny how the center reform has made the anticyclonic loop prediction come true.. in a mishmosh fashion. sunk the eightball, but wrong pocket. anyhow im not expecting kyle to move much for the next 24hrs.. and even if it does go east, it might not get taken out, just dragged some and then dropped.
94L.. spitting out low level swirls. exactly what is going on under the remaining convection is unsure but probably nothing.. we are probably watching this invest in its death throes. interestingly, ive got an inkling that an itcz wave may be forming near 9N54W. take a look on visible closeups and youll see what i'm getting at. yeah, probably nothing, but if it isnt.. you know.
have a good day, and smile shawn, the bullseye is close to you this time. dont think youll get a direct hit, but could be in on some of the action.
HF 1836z30september