OK, everyone take a deep breath....

First, it MAY get to cat 5...you have to remember as it approaches the coast:

1. eyewall replacement cycle fluctuations---it may get to Cat 5, but will it be a Cat 5 at landfall?

2. N/NW Gulf water temps are lower than where Lili is now...this may retard the strengthening. In fact, I've noticed a little pool of cooler water just to the right of the path..Isidore?

3. Dry air entrainment and shear may begin to pick up in the next twenty four hours.

4. Remember Opal (re: cycles)...it was nearly a five, lowered to a borderline 2/3 in a few hours just before landfall. Granted, the environment was a lot less favorable..just a cautionary note.

Having said all that---I still think it will for sure be a three, probably a four, chance of a five at landfall.

Next----where is it going?

First, it is moving to the right of the forecast track. Unless it corrects, this deviation will magnify over time. And, it may turn more to the N..we do not know yet. This slight deviation is the first 'crack' in the modelling 'armor'. We will know if it really mean something by 5...and if the storm also slows down, there could be a considerable track deviation.

What I am saying is that a 40 mile deviation to the right (what we have now) does not necessarily translate to 40 miles at landfall..it will probably be more.

As for me, believe the landfall 'marker posts' will be Central La coast eastward to Pascagoula...and actually, ultimately. I favor Pascagoula, maybe clipping Buras on the way- or even NO, depending on time/angle of the turn.

Time will tell!

IHS,

Bill