Pretty gutsy call Bill... don't necessarily agree with it but gutsy no less.... However, I do agree with most of the rest of your post .... slight deviate now could mean larger later (without corrections) .... remains to be seen if the deviation from track continues.... Hard to believe it could get to five based on your rationale below... they are just so scarce to come buy... every thing has to be perfect atmosherically....

Latest model runs have have shifted to the east by approximately 1 degree or so...

HF.... you get my point.... for all practical purposes 100 year events related to weather seems to occur every 50 years of so... next 24 hours is going to be some intense stress for those in the target zone...