i keep hearing its turning north its turning north.. getting a little old. pretty sure N.O. wont see more than some rain squalls.. none of that hurricane force wind business. alabama and mississippi.. its already past you guys.. forget there's a ridge steering it around ya? no need to have a conniption fit, unless youre an excitable cajun. heading on the last advisory was 315, which is due NW.. it's come around from 300 during the last 48 hours. probably still have a westerly component at landfall. beaumont is looking less likely now, cameron and vermillion have the bullseye on them. right side of the hurricane should come across as far over as new iberia/franklin/lafayette.. maybe hurricane force winds as far over as morgan city. idea is that the hurricane's core passes between population centers to the west (beaumont/port arthur) and east (lafayette/new iberia).. the hammer comes down in a less populated region. all of the coastal counties have mandatory evacs up for the low lying areas.. so if people drown down there its their fault for not leaving. dont imagine anyone wants to test lili's threat.
anyhow, intensity. 938mb.. pressure will probably not go much lower, think the storm is mostly done intensifying. probably just fluctuate around where it is, maybe weaken slightly right before it hits. turn north upon moving inland, and be going northeast by the time it reaches about 32n. this is the real deal.. right here and now it's on par with hugo at SC landfall.
i've been consistently low with my intensity track, and will probably end up being 50-125 miles too far west on the landfall point (not to mention a few hours late).. so like i keep saying, there aint no guru here.
well.. now, kyle. more consensus on it starting west.. how soon and how much will determine whether it threatens. if it deepens and moves out under the ridge periphery.. threat to the eastern carolinas this weekend, early next week.. and then up towards new england later, maybe. if bastardi is to be believed (thank God he's still online, thought he'd be a pay service by now).. and i put stock in things he says.. this could come to pass.
of course it could just stay put, dissipate.. or for some silly reason keep drifting east. slow moving storm with very little steering.. just cant say.
HF 2215z02october