mjo graphic shows the basin going into negative for a while.. probably not much activity for the next week or two. el nino is also finally squeezing out the cool sst pool near the galapagos, so basin shear shouldnt get any lighter. still expect another storm or two.
on another note i've taken a glance at kyle.. convection is just about gone. kyle has to survive for a while without convection if it wants to keep on being a pest. i'd say probably better than 50% it dissipates within the next few hours.. but the chance that it will keep persisting isnt lost on me.. it's already been going for two weeks.
going to get my fall break morning of hunting done.. time to catch some shuteye.
HF aiken, sc 0503z05october