Like I said in my post on Thursday, watch the SW Caribbean closely in the coming days. This looks to be associated with a tropical wave that isn't moving a whole lot. There was some weaker convection near Panama yesterday. If this convection is from the same source as yesterday's was, then I'd say the area might have drifted NW some. There could be a slight mid-level rotation with the convection, but this one has a ways to go. Persistance would help. If I remember right, Michelle came from a disorganized yet persistant area of thunderstorm activity around the same area.

Kyle needs to go away, either that or do something else. Tracking him is actually getting be annoying.

Kevin