kyle is about to start its 19th day of existence.. already an unusually long-lived system. pretty good model consensus starting it south tomorrow and bending westward later on. so far modeling has had a pretty loose handle on kyle.. overpredicted westward movement and recurvature. my thinking goes.. consensus track but very slowly.. some intensification during shear gaps.
other basin features not looking very impressive. deep layer low east of kyle weakening and not organizing, possible frontal hybrid near the tx/la coast next couple of days. still various modeling hinting at central atlantic development, but this has been a nonproductive theme for about a week and there is little overall model agreement.
the idea about an mjo flip lull may be holding some water.. no new development since september 21st.. and about 15-25 days of quiet with typical mjo cycles. however, bastardi's high pressure at hatteras/west caribbean teleconnection is about to switch on.. so its just about time for the october activity to begin in earnest, should this pattern recognition scheme work. there are probably a couple more in the works, at least one, maybe three or four.
HF 0300z08october