havent seen any t.s. force wind reports, from anywhere. a few gusts have made it.. but wherever the gale force winds are, they are localized and probably transient in offshore squalls. 2pm position has it right off cape romain. i guess kyle will pass cape fear and the outerbanks at cartaret and dare counties later today and tonight, and be out to sea tomorrow. might actually become extratropical in the meanwhile.. structure is elongating ahead of a weak frontal zone, with all of the activity pretty much on the eastern side.
as for the caribbean issue this week.. kevin has already outlined a hurricane hit scenario for the west coast of florida.. egad. i'm going to be a little more conservative, say that modeling and pattern suggest something might materialize down there between sunday and tuesday, and that it will probably come up and cross cuba. that said, several of the globals are placing a leader low (maybe one of those fake binary systems they like to generate) off the southeast coast later this week and steering the caribbean system eastward into the bahamas. if that low is realistic, it would make the threat extreme se florida and more likely the bahamas. in other words, no irene.. more like michelle. thats my take.. though i havent even confidence that it will form, much less be in a position to threaten. synoptic setup isnt there yet, a fierce shear jet has to lift and some ridging needs to advance into the sw carib region.
HF 1807z11october