last kyle advisory.. somewhere in the 80s for total advisories, i believe. kyle made #3 all time on the longevity list, quite impressive.
the appearance of the w caribbean this morning is the first confirmation of all of those global's premise that trouble would begin down there. since it is developing about five days behind the current westpac typhoon in the corresponding location.. look for a similar path.. which is nne. some modeling has the system clipping se florida, but the consensus is across central cuba and the bahamas. the big model difference right now revolves around a possible noreaster ahead/with the storm. on avn they are one in the same, but on nogaps, ukmet, cmc.. a separate frontal wave get supercharged as it phases in and tears up the east coast next week. so if we have a tropical system coming out of the caribbean, it will probably be interacting with a closer, more powerful extratropical low that runs the east coast during the middle of next week.
other basin activity.. mjo is about to flip back to happy, so something else could try to happen in the near future. the current pattern that will periodically favor western caribbean development should hold for the near future, so this theme could be repeating next week or the week after.
HF 1520z12october